000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 17.2N 120.5W at 04/1500 UTC or 790 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the SE semicircle and within 240 nm in the NW semicircle. Additional weakening is forecast, and Fabio is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Fabio is then likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N to 17N along 102W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 14N between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 100W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 10N82W to 08N91W to 11N106W...then resumes from 10N120W to 09N127W to low pres 1009 mb near 11N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 08N between 94W and 100W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fabio is heading WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. This will allow the strong SE winds S of 20N and W of 113W to subside to moderate speeds. Associated seas in this area of 11 to 15 ft will subside to between 8 and 11 ft by this afternoon. Seas for all of forecast zones W of Baja will subside to less than 8 ft Thu night. Otherwise, a narrow ridge will undulate SE from near 32N135W across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Fri. Light and variable winds are expected on Sat and Sun. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the waters N of 29N through this afternoon, then winds will become light in the evening. Light to gentle variable winds are then expected Thu through Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night with seas reaching 10 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 22N137W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Strong winds from 23N to 24N between 136W and 139W will subside by this evening as the low dissipates and the resulting trough moves farther west. The remnant trough of Emilia is forecast to move west of the area late Wed. Elsewhere, the same surface ridge W of Baja is generating fresh north winds W of California. N to NE swell generated by these winds are helping to maintain 8 to 9 ft seas W of Baja California Norte. This area of seas is combining with the area to the N of The remnant low of Emilia. This area of swell will subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. $$ Ramos