000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 241 UTC Wed Jul 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 16.5N 117.9W at 04/0300 UTC or 595 nm sw of the southern tip of Baja California, moving WNW at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 450 nm in the SE semicircle and within 210 nm in the NW semicircle. Winds have peaked and steady to rapid weakening is forecast, with Fabio weakening into a tropical storm on Thursday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N102W to 18N101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N between 97W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 100W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 11N82W to 07N95W to 11N107W...then resumes from 10N120W to 09N127W to low pres 1007 mb near 11N133W to beyond 10N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fabio is heading WNW away from the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. This will allow the strong to near gale force SE winds S of 20N and W of 111W to subside to moderate speeds by tomorrow morning. Associated seas of 11 to 18 ft will subside to between 8 and 11 ft during this time frame. Seas for all of forecast zones W of Baja will subside to less than 8 ft Thu night. Otherwise, a ridge will extend SE from near 32N135W across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula to near the Revillagigedo Islands through Fri. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Fri. Light and variable winds are expected on Sat and Sun. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh southerly flow will affect the waters N of 29N tonight, then winds will become light Wed. Light to gentle variable winds are then expected Thu through Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night with seas reaching 10 ft. Strong winds will continue to pulse at night through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 23N135W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Strong winds within 180 nm of the NW quadrant will subside by Wed evening as the low/trough continue to move west. The remnant trough of Emilia is forecast to move west of the area late Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge NW the area is generating fresh north winds and 8 to 9 ft seas. This area of seas is combining with the area to the N of The remnant low of Emilia. This area of swell will subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. $$ CAM