000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 15.8N 116.5W at 03/2100 UTC or 570 nmi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere in bands from 11N to 19N between 109W and 121W. Some slight strengthening is still possible through this evening and Fabio could still become a major hurricane. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday, and Fabio will likely weaken to a tropical storm on Thursday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 05N along 101W, and is moving west at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 14N between 93W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to 09N104W...then resumes at 10N122W and continues west-southwest to beyond 10N140W. For convection information see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fresh to near gale-force east-northeast winds are west of 110W in offshore zone 015. Associated swells of 8 to 18 ft are affecting greater portions of offshores 015 and 023. Strong winds are forecast to shift west of zone 015 early on Wed, however associated swells of 8 to 13 ft will shift north across the waters west of Baja through Thu morning. The swell will then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. Otherwise, a northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Fri. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Fri. Light variable winds are expected on Sat and Sun. Gulf of California: Moderate southerly flow is south of 29N with higher winds up to 22 kt N of 29N. Winds N of 29N are forecast to diminish tonight. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Thu through Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night with seas to 10 ft. Winds will continui to pulse at night through the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 23N132W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Fresh to strong winds remain in the NW quadrant and are expected to continue through Wed morning as the low/trough continues to move west. The remnant trough of Emilia is forecast to move west of the area late Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas have spread southwest into the area as far south as 25N west of 137W. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late tonight. A weak trough will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Ramos