000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031608 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Hurricane Fabio centered near 15.2N 115.6W at 03/1500 UTC or 560 nmi south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands within 480 nm of center except 270 nm over the northwest quadrant. Some additional strengthening is possible later today and Fabio is forecast to be near major hurricane strength tonight. Steady to rapid weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and Fabio will likely become a tropical storm on Thursday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 06N along 100W, and is moving west at 12 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 210 nm west of the wave axis and within 150 nm east of it. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N93W to 10N105W...then resumes west of hurrricane Fabio near 10N121W and continues west-southwest to beyond 09N140W. For convection information see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Hurricane Fabio. Fresh to locally strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 150 nm of offshore zones 023 and 015 today with the conditions shifting west of zone 015 early Wed. Associated swells of 8 to 16 ft seaward of 60 nm will shift north across the waters west of Baja during mid week and are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. Otherwise, a northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Fri. Moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Thu increasing to a fresh northwest breeze on Thu night and Fri. Gulf of California: Moderate southerly flow expected today becoming a gentle southerly breeze on Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night becoming fresh to strong with seas to 10 ft on Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 23N132W with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1012 mb. Fresh to strong winds remain in the NW quadrant and are expected to continue through Wed morning as the low/trough continues to move west. The remnant trough of Emilia is forecast to move west of the area late Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas have spread southwest into the area as far south as 25N west of 137W. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late tonight. A weak trough will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Ramos