000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 03 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 14.5N 113.0W at 03/0300 UTC or 615 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 east of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands within 360 nm of center. Fabio will strengthen to 95kt gusts 115 kt near 15.3N 114.8W Tue morning, strengthen to 100 kt gusts to 120 kt near 16.3N 117.3W on Tue evening, then weaken to 90 kt gusts to 110 kt reaching near 17.6N120.W on Wed morning, 75 kt gusts to 90 kt near 19.0N 122.5W on Wed evening and then continue west of the area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 07N along 99W, and is moving west at 12 kt. Isolated moderate and strong convection is flaring intermittently within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N75W to across extreme northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W and through a tropical wave along 99W to 12N105W where it lose identity. The monsoon trough resumes west of Fabio at 11N118W and continues west to beyond 10N140W. Except as previously described near Fabio isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within area bounded by 20N106W to 08N78W to 03N94W to 10N106W to 20N106W, and within 120 nm wither side of a line from 10N120W to 13N133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Cyclone Fabio. Fresh to locally strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 150 nm of offshore zones 023 and 015 through Tue and shifting west of zone 015 late Wed. Associated swells of 8 to 14 ft are forecast seaward of 60 nm and will spread north across the waters west of Baja during mid week and should subside to less than 8 ft late Thu night. Otherwise, a northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu. Moderate northerly winds are expected around this ridge through Thu increasing to a fresh northwest breeze on Thu night and Fri. Gulf of California: Moderate southerly flow expected on Tue and becoming gentle on Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri with strong drainage flow forecast on Fri night. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week with 5 to 8 ft seas primarily due to cross-equatorial southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 22N128W with an estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Winds of 20 to 25 kt continue within 180 nm north of the center. The low is forecast to move to near 23N134W on tue tonight and then weaken to an open trough on Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas have spread southwest into the area as far south as 25N west of 137W. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less late Tue night. A weak trough will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Nelson