000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022213 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 111.8W AT 2100 UTC, OR ABOUT 555 NM SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MOVING W NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RAGGED EYE ATTEMPTING TO CLEAR OUT, SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING IN BANDS WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 70 NM SW SEMICIRCLES, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY PEAK BY THAT TIME AT OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH, AS IT CONTINUES ON WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE OPEN PACIFIC. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF ZONES 023 AND 015 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LARGE SE SWELL SPREADING ACROSS THESE SAME WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.8N 125.8W THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG ABOUT 98W/99W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES MORNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE UP TO 210 NM BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACAPULCO. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N76W TO 08N92W TO 12N105W, THEN RESUMES FROM 11N115W TO 12N121W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 91W, WITHIN 210 NM OF MEXICAN COAST FROM 94W TO 101W, FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 107W, AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 122W AND 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING HURRICANE FABIO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 200 NM OF OFFSHORE ZONES 025 AND 023 THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 150 NM OF ZONE 015 THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SE TO S SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THESE OFFSHORE ZONES AND THE REMAINING WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI NIGHT. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THIS RIDGE THROUGH THU INCREASING TO MODERATE TO FRESH ON THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FABIO. GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG 30N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STRONG NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL RESUME ON WED NIGHT AND COULD REACH 30 KT BY FRI NIGHT. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING BETWEEN 08N AND 10N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 22N 128W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER WITH SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 23N133W TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH WED AS IT SHIFTS MORE WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 32N133W TO BEYOND 24N113W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 10 FT SEAS, ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA AND WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 26N TO THE WEST OF 132W TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH WED. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILIA WED THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 29.5N THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ STRIPLING