000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021617 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 02 2018 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE FABIO IS CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 110.9W AT 1500 UTC, OR ABOUT 610 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, MOVING W NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING IN BANDS IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES, WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT 360 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WILL LIKELY PEAK BY THAT TIME AS A MAJOR HURRICANE, AS IT CONTINUES ON W NW TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE OPEN PACIFIC. FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF ZONES 023 AND 015 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LARGE SE SWELL SPREADING ACROSS THESE SAME WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.6N 130.0W EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION SSE TO NEAR 06N93W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND EXTENDING OFFSHORE UP TO 210 NM BETWEEN THE MEXICO- GUATEMALA BORDER AND ACAPULCO. THIS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE TODAY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 09N84W TO 10N99W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N116W TO 10N135W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W, WITHIN 210 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 92W TO 101W, FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W, AND FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING HURRICANE FABIO. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 200 NM OF OFFSHORE ZONES 025 AND 023 THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 210 NM OF ZONE 015 THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING. ASSOCIATED SE TO S SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THESE OFFSHORE ZONES AND THE REMAINING WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON THU. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND THIS RIDGE THROUGH THU INCREASING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH ON THU NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG 30N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STRONG NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL RESUME ON WED NIGHT. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WITHIN 150 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING BETWEEN 08N AND 10N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THIS WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 127W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER WITH SMALL AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 23N132W TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY WED MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 32N136W TO BEYOND 26N118W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY 8 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA AND WILL REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS 26N TO THE WEST OF 132W TUE MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH WED. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILIA WED THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 29.5N THROUGH MID WEEK. $$ STRIPLING