000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020902 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 02 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 12.5N 110.1W at 02/0900 UTC or 720 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 120 of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in bands from 07N to 16N between 105W and 115W. Fabio will strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 111.7W this afternoon, move to 14.0N 114.0W tonight, 15.0N 116.5W Tue afternoon, 16.1N 119.0W Tue night, and 18.6N 124.2W Wed night. Fabio will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 129.0W on Thu night and become a post-tropical low pressure reaching near 24.5N 134.0W on Fri night. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 07N along 95W, and is moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is flaring intermittently within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W to across extreme northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W and through a tropical wave along 95W to 09N99W where it lose identity. The monsoon trough resumes west of Fabio at 12N116W and turns west-southwest to 10N135W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues southwest to beyond 07N140W. Except as previously described near Fabio, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm of the coast of Mexico from 92W to 106W. Similar convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 05N90W to 12N103W, and within 90 nm either side of lines from 12N117W to 12N123W and from 12N128W to 10N135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Cyclone Fabio. Fresh to locally strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 200 nm of offshore zones 025 and 023 through this morning, with these conditions shifting northwest across the waters beyond 210 nm of zone 015 this evening through Tue evening, with associated swells of 8 to 12 ft propagating northward across these offshore zones. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu. Light to occasionally moderate winds are expected elsewhere around this ridge through Thu increasing to a moderate to fresh northwest breeze on Thu night. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast along 30N tonight through Tue night. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere across the gulf waters through tonight followed by moderate southerly flow on Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Extended guidance is suggesting that strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Emilia is centered near 20.5N 125.5W with an estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Winds of 20 to 25 kt continue within 180 nm of the center with moderate convection flaring intermittently within 150 nm of the center. The low is forecast to move to near 22N130W tonight and then weaken to an open trough on Tue night. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas are spreading southwest into the area and will reach as far south as 27N west of 134W tonight before beginning to diminish with winds forecast to 20 kt or less late Tue night. A weak cold front will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Nelson