000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 02 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fabio centered near 12.5N 109.5W at 02/0300 UTC or 630 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California moving W-NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Numerous strong convection is observed within 240 nm over the southwest quadrant of center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere in from 09N to 16N between 108W and 114W. Fabio will strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N 111.2W Mon morning, move to 13.6N 113.4W Mon evening, 14.5N 115.8W Tue morning, 15.5N 118.3W Tue evening, and 17.7N 123.3W Wed evening. Fabio will weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 128.2W on thu evening and become a post-tropical low pressure reaching near 24.0N 132.7W on Fri. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia is centered near 20.3N 125.3W at 02/0300 UTC or 870 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California moving W-NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt and lacks significant convection. Emilia will become a remnant low and move to 21.0N 127.0W Mon morning, 21.9N 129.2W Mon evening, 22.5N 131.7W Tue morning, 23.0N 134.5W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed evening. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed north of 07N along 8W, and is moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed south of 10N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 10N76W to across extreme northern Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W and through a tropical wave along 89W to 11N100W where it lose identity. The monsoon trough resumes west of Fabio at 13N117W and turns southwest to 11N129W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues southwest to beyond 07N140W. Except as previously described near Fabio, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm of the coasts of Central America and Mexico from 82W to 86W and from 91W to 98W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm OF 06N88W, within 180 nm either side of a line from 08N96W to 17N107W and within 60 nm either side of lines from 10N114W to 13N120W and from 12N124W to 09N137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the special features section for details regarding Tropical Cyclone Fabio. Fresh to strong east winds are forecast across the waters beyond 150 nm of offshore zones 025 and 023 through Mon morning, then spreading northwest across the waters beyond 210 nm of zone 015 on Mon through early Wed, with associated swells greater than 8 ft propagating northward across these offshore zones. A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge will extend across the Pacific waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Thu. Light to occasionally moderate winds are expected elsewhere around this ridge. Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast along 30N on Mon night through Tue night. Light and variable winds forecast elsewhere across the gulf waters through Mon night followed by moderate southerly flow on Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Extended guidance is suggesting that strong nocturnal drainage winds will resume on Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh nocturnal offshore winds will occur across and within 150 nm downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the end of this week. Gentle to occasionally moderate easterly winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 08N and 10N, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the special features section for details on intensifying Tropical Cyclone Fabio. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N136W to beyond 26N118W. Fresh to locally strong north winds, accompanied by 7 to 10 ft seas are spreading southwest into the area and will reach as far south as 27N west of 134W on Mon night before beginning to diminish with winds forecast to 20 kt or less late Tue night. A weak cold front will pass through the discussion area north of 29.5N through mid week. $$ Nelson