000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011616 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 01 2018 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N, EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FABIO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 107.4W 1000 MB AT 1500 UTC, OR ABOUT 455 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CONVECTION IS BECOMING VERY CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CORE OF FABIO THIS MORNING, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM ACROSS THE EAST AND 210 NM ACROSS THE WEST SEMICIRCLES. ELSEWHERE A LONG ARCHING BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 90 TO 500 NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT, AND HAS BEEN SCRAPING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT FROM JUST WEST OF PUERTO ANGEL TO THE COAST OF MICHOACAN. FABIO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WNW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, REACHING HURRICANE FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND HIGH SEAS WILL BRUSH ALONG THE OUTER WATERS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FROM OFFSHORE OF ACAPULCO TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH TUE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA IS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 19.3N 123.0W 1006 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM NE, 45 NM SE, 150 NM SW, AND 75 NM NW QUADRANTS. EMILIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY WED. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 95W IS BEING STRETCHED BOTH TO THE NW AND SE, BETWEEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FABIO AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG 91W. THIS WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY AS IT IS BEING ABSORBED IN THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE REGION ALONG ABOUT 81W/82W AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE PACIFIC WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N73W TO 07.5N92W TO 10.5N99W,. WHERE IT BREAKS EAST OF FABIO, THEN RESUMES FROM 13N122W TO 09N132W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W...N OF 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W...FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S AND 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM FABIO. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 120 NM OF THE COAST FOR OFFSHORE ZONES 027 AND 025, THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 210 NM OF ZONE 023 TONIGHT, AND ACROSS THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF ZONE 015 ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 8-10 FT TODAY BUILDING TO 12-18 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF ZONE 015 LATE MON AS FABIO STRENGTHENS TO A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE. A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THU. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THIS RIDGE, WITH MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA: MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG 30N THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MON, ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEABREEZES TO DOMINATE WINDS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC: EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT STRONG NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS WILL RESUME ON THU NIGHT. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... GULF OF PAPAGAYO: FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS AND WITHIN 200 NM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS MEANDERING BETWEEN 08N AND 10N, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR 32N136W TO BEYOND 27N119W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND 6 TO 7 FT SEAS, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, ACCOMPANIED BY 7 TO 9 FT SEAS, WILL REACH ALONG 30N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH TO ALONG 25N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W ON MON NIGHT, WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT FORECAST WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N124W TO 24N140W IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA NORTH OF 30N EARLY THIS WEEK. $$ STRIPLING