000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292154
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2100 UTC Fri Jun 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Emilia centered near 16.6N 116.9W at 29/2100 UTC
or 550 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous 
moderate and scattered strong convection is confined to roughly 
the the SW semicircle and extends from 12N to 18N between 116W 
and 121W. Wave heights to 19 ft are likely occurring under the 
strongest winds, and will peak near 20 ft tonight. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC 
for more details.

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 10N99W, drifting 
westward. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are 
observed from 11N to 16N between 94W and 103W, with scattered 
moderate convection from 07N to 11N between 95W and 107W. 
Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and there
is a high chance for this system to become a tropical depression
in the next 48 hours. A gale warning has been issued effective 
Sun at 1200 UTC due to the pressure gradient across the 
northern semicircle, between the developing low and high 
pressure over Mexico. Please see the latest high seas forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on 
this developing gale. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W through a tropical wave 
along 87W to 10N98W, then resumes from 11N122W to 08N130W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from 
convection associated with Emilia and the special features low, 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 04N to 12N E of 96W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for further details on Tropical
Storm Emilia and the developing low pressure system centered SW 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered well NW of the region supports mainly 
gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 25N. 
The pressure gradient over the northern Gulf of California will 
tighten through this evening as the ridge shifts E and low pres 
deepens over the Colorado River Valley, leading to the 
development of fresh winds over the Gulf of California N of 29N 
through Sat. Seas over this portion of the Gulf will range 
between 3 to 6 ft during this time. Strong winds north of the 
region supported by the strengthening ridge will bring NW swell 
of 7 to 8 ft offshore Baja California briefly through tonight. 
Early next week, forecast models are indicating that another area
of low pressure may develop and pass south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

See the special features section for further details regarding 
the developing low pressure system centered SW of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will occur over the 
Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. The pressure gradient 
on the NE side of the special features low pressure system will 
eventually boost winds to fresh to strong W of 92W including the
offshore zones of Guatemala and El Salvador by tonight before 
the low heads west and carries its wind field west of the region 
on Sat. Yet another area of low pressure may develop by Tue, to 
the west of the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, the monsoon trough 
will meander in the vicinity of 10N during the next several days,
with mainly moderate winds prevailing on both sides of the 
trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

See the special features section for further details on Tropical
Storm Emilia and the developing low pressure system centered SW 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered just to the NW of the discussion area has
a ridge that extends SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. N of 
15N and W of 120W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail with 
seas generally ranging between 5 to 7 ft. S of the ITCZ and W of 
115W moderate to fresh SE winds and combined seas of 6 to 7 ft 
are observed. Seas near the Equator W of 110W will continue to 
run between 7 and 8 feet through Sat as mixed SE and SW swell 
maintain seas in this area. Later this weekend into early next 
week, strengthening high pres NW of the region may bring fresh 
to strong NE winds accompanied by a batch of N to NE swell. This 
may cause seas to build to between 8 and 10 ft across the waters
N of 25N and W of 130W Sun night through Wed. 

$$
Latto