000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291551
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1545 UTC Fri Jun 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Emilia is centered near 16.2N 116.3W at 29/1500 
UTC or 540 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving 
WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. 
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is confined to
roughly the the SW semicircle and extends from 13N to 17N 
between 115W and 120W. Peak wave heights to 18 ft are likely 
occurring under the strongest winds, and will increase to near 22
ft when the system peaks in intensity tonight. See latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC 
for more details.

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 10N97W, drifting westward.
Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection are observed
from 09N to 15N between 95W and 102W, with scattered moderate
convection in a developing band from 08N to 10N between 102W and
105W. Environmental conditions are favorable for development, 
and there is a high chance for this system to become a tropical 
depression in the next 48 hours. A gale warning has been issued 
effective Sun at 1200 UTC due to the pressure gradient across the
northeastern quadrant, between the developing low and high 
pressure over Mexico. Please see the latest high seas forecast 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on 
this developing gale. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W through a tropical wave
along 86W to 10N97W, then resumes from 11N122W to 08N130W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from 
convection associated with Emilia and the special features low, 
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 03N to 11N E of 99W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for further details on Tropical
Storm Emilia and the developing low pressure system centered SSW
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered well NW of the region supports mainly 
gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 25N. 
The pressure gradient over the northern Gulf of California will 
tighten today as the ridge shifts E and low pres deepens over 
the Colorado River Valley, leading to the development of fresh to
possibly strong winds over the Gulf of California N of 29N 
today through Sat. Seas over this portion of the Gulf will range
between 3 to 6 ft during this time. Strong winds north of the 
region supported by the strengthening ridge will bring NW swell 
of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California briefly today and tonight.
Early next week, forecast models are indicating that another 
area of low pressure may develop and pass south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

See the special features section for further details regarding 
the developing low pressure system centered SSW of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will occur over the 
Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. The pressure gradient 
on the NE side of the special features low pressure system will 
eventually boost winds to strong W of 92W including the offshore
zones of Guatemala and El Salvador by tonight before the low 
heads west and carries its wind field west of the region by Sat. 
Yet another area of low pressure may develop by Tue, to the west 
of the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, the monsoon trough will 
meander in the vicinity of 10N during the next several days, with
mainly moderate winds prevailing on both sides of the trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

See the special features section for further details on Tropical
Storm Emilia and the developing low pressure system centered SSW
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered just to the NW of the discussion area has
a ridge that extends SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. N of 
15N and W of 120W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail with 
seas generally ranging between 5 to 7 ft. S of the ITCZ and W of 
115W moderate to fresh SE winds and combined seas of 6 to 7 ft 
are observed. Seas near the Equator W of 110W will continue to 
run between 7 and 8 feet through Sat as mixed SE and SW swell 
maintain seas in this area. Later this weekend into early next 
week, a batch of N to NE swell causing seas to build to between 8
and 10 ft is expected to propagate across the waters N of 25N 
and W of 130W. 

$$
Latto