000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280402
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 UTC Thu Jun 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Six-E formed earlier this afternoon and is 
centered near 13.6N 109.6W at 28/0300 UTC or 560 nm S of the 
Southern Tip of Baja California moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered 
strong convection is found in the NW semicircle within 120 nm. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen 
elsewhere in the W semicircle within 360 nm. Slow strengthening 
is forecast for this system during the next 72 hours, and the 
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thu. See 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave with an axis near 93W is expected to spawn a low
south of the Tehuantepec region by Fri. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N between 90W
and 98W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive 
for development of this system over the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast 
of Mexico over the weekend. This system possesses a medium chance
of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.The 
system will move WNW and bring fresh to strong winds toward the 
offshore waters adjacent to the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca 
Fri and then the offshore waters adjacent to Guerrero Mexico on 
Sat. Seas associated with this system will then affect the 
offshore waters of Manzanillo on Sun.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 09N85W to 11N96W to
12N106W, then resumes near 12N114W to 14N124W to 11N134W. The 
ITCZ continues from 11N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N E of 
88W and from 07N to 11N between 100W and 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the special features section for further details on recently
developed Tropical Depression Six-E and the developing system
centered S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

High pressure centered well northwest of the region supports 
mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of
25N. The pressure gradient over the northern Gulf of California 
will tighten tonight and Fri as the ridge shifts E and low pres
deepens over the Colorado River Valley, leading to the 
development of fresh to possibly strong winds over the Gulf of 
California N of 29N on Fri. Seas over this portion of the Gulf 
will range between 3 to 6 ft during this time. Strong winds north
of the region supported by the strengthening ridge will bring NW
swell of 7 to 9 ft offshore Baja California briefly Fri and Fri 
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will occur over the
Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. On Fri, low pressure is
expected to develop along the monsoon trough S of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. The pressure gradient on the NE side of this system
will boost winds to strong to near gale force W of 90W for the 
offshore zones of Guatemala and El Salvador. This low will then 
head W and carry its wind field to the west by Sat. Otherwise, 
the monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 15N during the 
next several days, with gentle winds prevailing to the north, and
moderate winds prevailing to the south of the trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

See the special features section for further details on recently
developed Tropical Depression Six-E.

High pressure centered well NW of the area has a ridge axis
extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. S of 20N and N 
of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas 
generally ranging between 5 to 7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally
observed N of 20N W of 120W with seas running between 6 and 9 
ft primarily in N to NE swell. Combined seas for the waters N of
20N will subside tonight as the underlying swell diminishes. Seas
near the Equator W of 110W will run between 7 and 8 feet through
Sat as mixed SE and SW swell maintain seas in this area.

$$
CAM