000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1602 UTC Wed Jun 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low located near 12.1N108.5W is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 09N to 17N between 102W and 112W. This broad area of low pressure, located well south of the coast of Mexico, is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical cyclone is likely to develop over the next two days as it moves to move WNW. Earlier scatterometer data indicated an elongated closed circulation with 20 to 30 kt winds within 270 nm SE semicircle. Regardless of development, this low will produce fresh to near gale force winds and seas to 12 ft within a couple hundred nm of the center over the next 24 hours, with winds likely increasing to gale force by Thu afternoon. See the latest tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details on the potential development of this system, and under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the developing gale. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N99W to a 1007 mb low pressure near 12.1N108.5W to 11N135W. The ITCZ begins near 11N135W and continues to 10N140W. Aside from convection associated with the special feature low, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 04N between 90W and 102W, and N of 04N E of 86W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 25N. The high will slowly build eastward through Thu, bringing an increase in NW flow offshore Baja California Norte N of 28N through the end of the week. The pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California will also tighten late this week, leading to the development of fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California N of 29N. Seas over this portion of the Gulf will range between 3-6 ft during this time. The low mentioned in the special features section is generating fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the region between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Seas greater than 8 ft associated with this system are expected to spread across the offshore waters of Acapulco and Manzanillo today and Thu. This low will likely become a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave with axis near 90W is expected to spawn a low south of the Tehuantepec region by early Fri with fresh to strong winds, possibly increasing to near gale force later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshore waters of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca Fri and Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. Seas associated with this system will then affect the offshore waters of Manzanillo on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds will occur across the Papagayo region each night through the weekend. On Fri, low pressure expected to develop along the monsoon trough will increase winds to strong to near gale force W of 90W over the offshore zone of Guatemala and El Salvador. This low will then exit the offshore zone to the west by Sat. Otherwise, the monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 15N the next several days, with gentle winds to the north, and moderate winds to the south of the trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Daniel is centered near 20N123W. No convection is noted. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the NW of the region is likely supporting fresh winds within about 120 nm of the NW semicircle of the low, with associated seas to 8 ft. The low will degenerate into a trough later this evening. High pressure well northwest of the area has a ridge axis that extends SE to near 25N120W. S of 20N and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally N of 20N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft, aided by both a SE and a NW swell component. These conditions over the waters N of 20N will improve beginning tonight as the swell diminishes. $$ Latto