000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low located near 11.9N107.5W is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N to 16N between 100W and 114W. This broad area of low pressure, located well south of the coast of Mexico, gradually becomes better organized, which may lead to the development of a tropical cyclone within the next day or two as it continues to move WNW. Latest scatterometer data show an elongated closed circulation with 20 to 30 kt winds within 270 nm SE semicircle. Regardless of development, this low will produce fresh to near gale force winds and seas to 12 ft within a couple hundred nm of the center over the next couple of days. See the latest tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N94W to a 1006 mb low pressure near 11.9N107.5W to 14N124W to 11N135W. The ITCZ begins near 11N135W and continues to 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the special feature low, scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 03N E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 25N. The high will slowly build westward through tonight, thus allowing NW flow offshore Baja California Norte to decrease to gentle to light. The ridge will then start shifting eastward allowing for the NW winds off northern and portions of central Baja to increase to moderate through early Sat. The pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California will also tighten, thus leading to the development of fresh to strong winds N of 29N from Thu morning through Sat night. Seas in this region will range between 3-6 ft. The low mentioned in the special features section is generating fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the region between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Seas greater than 8 ft associated with this system are expected to spread across the offshore waters of Acapulco and Manzanillo today and Thu. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave with axis near 88W is expected to spawn a low south of the Tehuantepec region by early Fri with fresh to strong winds, possibly increasing to near gale force winds later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshore waters of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca Fri and Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. Seas associated with this system will affect the offshore waters of Manzanillo on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 15N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Thu north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough axis. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Daniel is centered near 20N121W. No convection is noted. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the NW of the region is likely supporting fresh winds within about 120 nm of the NW semicircle of the low, with associated seas to 8 ft. This system will gradually degenerate into a trough later today. High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge axis SE to near 120W. S of 20N and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally N of 20N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft, aided by both a SE and a NW swell component. These conditions over the waters N of 20N will improve beginning Wed night as the swell diminishes. SW cross equatorial swell to 8 ft will briefly cross the equator to about 05N between 120W and 140W through Wed. $$ Ramos