000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270405 RRA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low located near 10.4N103W is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 450 nm west semicircle of the low center. This broad area of low pressure, located well south of the coast of Mexico, gradually becomes better organized, which may lead to the development of a tropical cyclone within the next day or two as it continues to move WNW. Regardless of development, this low will produce fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft within a couple hundred nm of the center over the next couple of days. See the latest tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N85W to 07N96W to 1007 mb low pressure near 10N103W to 15N112W. The ITCZ begins near 11N125W and continues to 08N133W to 08N140W. Aside from convection associated with the special feature low, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 15N E of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 99W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 24N. The high will slowly build westward over the next few days, thus allowing NW flow offshore Baja California Norte to decrease to gentle to light during the weekend. Gentle to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf of California will freshen early on Fri as surface troughing strengthens over the region, and the E Pacific high builds eastward. Strong winds are expected N of 29N later on Friday continuing to Sat night. Seas in this region will range between 3-5 ft. A 1007 mb low located near 10.4N103W is generating fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the region between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and offshore waters of Oaxaca, Mexico. Seas greater than 8 ft associated with this system are expected to spread across the offshore waters of Acapulco and Manzanillo Wed and Thu. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave is expected to spawn a low south of the Tehuantepec region by early Fri with fresh to strong winds, possibly increasing to near gale force winds later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshore waters of Tehuantepec and Oaxaca Fri and Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. Seas associated with this system will affect the offshore waters of Manzanillo on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 15N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Thu north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region at night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough axis. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop just south of the offshore waters of Guatemala by Thu night. As the low moves west, it will possibly bring fresh to strong easterly winds with associated seas to the offshore zone of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri. The low will then take a west- northwest track, shifting these conditions to the offshore waters of southern and southwest Mexico Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Daniel is centered near 20N121W. No significant convection is noted. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the NW of the region is likely supporting fresh winds within about 120 nm of the NW semicircle of the low, with associated seas to 8 ft. This system will gradually degenerate into a trough over the next couple of days. High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge axis SE to near 120W. S of 20N and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are generally N of 20N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft, aided by both a SE and a NW swell component. These conditions over the waters N of 20N will improve beginning Wed night as the swell diminishes. SW cross equatorial swell to 8 ft will briefly cross the equator to about 05N between 120W and 140W tonight through Wed. $$ Ramos