000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1559 UTC Tue Jun 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low located near 10N101W is generating scattered moderate to strong convection and tstms from 07N to 11N between 98W and 107W. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days as it moves west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this low will produce fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft within a couple hundred nm of the center over the next couple of days. See the latest tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1008 mb low pressure near 10N101W to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N108W, then resumes near 16N119W and continues to 10N128W. The ITCZ begins near 10N128W and continues to 11N135W, then resumes west of a surface trough near 11N136W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from convection associated with the special feature low, scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 05N E of 101W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 107W and 111W, and from 06N to 13N between 131W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well northwest of the region supports mainly gentle to moderate NW flow across the offshore waters N of 20N. The high will slowly build westward over the next few days, as the remnants of Daniel dissipate. This will bring a gradual increase in NW flow offshore Baja California Norte through the end of the week. Gentle to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf of California will freshen late this week as surface troughing strengthens over the region, and the E Pacific high builds westward. Seas generally between 5-7 ft will prevail the next several days across the offshore waters N of 20N. A 1010 mb low located near 100N101W is generating fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the region between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 105N, S of 20N. Seas greater than 8 ft are expected to spread across the offshore waters of Acapulco and Manzanillo Wed and Thu. This low has the potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next two days. See the special features section for further details. A tropical wave is expected to spawn a low south of the Tehuantepec region by early Fri with fresh to strong winds, possibly increasing to near gale force winds later that day. The system will move west-northwest bringing these conditions toward the offshore waters of Guerrero, Mexico on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Thu north of the monsoon trough, except for fresh to occasionally strong offshore winds across the Papagayo region at night. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the trough axis. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the offshore waters of Nicaragua on Thu. As the low moves west Thu evening, it will bring fresh to strong easterly winds with associated seas to the offshore zone of El Salvador and Guatemala. The low will then take a west- northwest track, shifting these conditions to the offshore waters of southern and southwest Mexico Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Daniel centered near 20.0N 120.2W at 26/1500 UTC or 600 nm WSW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. No significant convection is noted. This system will gradually degenerate into a trough over the next couple of days. High pressure well northwest of the area has a ridge that extends SE to near 120W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is supporting fresh NE winds N of 26N W of 127W with seas to 9 ft. These conditions in the north-central and northwest waters will gradually improve through Wed night. $$ Latto