000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0330 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 0300 UTC Tropical Depression Daniel was located near 19.7N 
118.8W or about 520 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of 
Baja California, moving WNW at 8 kt. The minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Convection has continued to diminish in recent 
hours, with scattered moderate convection seen in satellite 
imagery within 60 nm across the SW semicircle. Daniel is 
forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. See the NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC 
for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to a 1008 mb low pressure 
near 08N97W to a 1010 mb low near 15N106W, then resumes near 
17N122W TO 13N126W. The ITCZ extends from 13N126W to 12N132W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N 
between 90W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 12N west of 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the region in part due 
to a surface trough present along the Gulf of California. This 
is producing light and variable winds across the offshore 
waters, except for 10-15 kt along the Baja coast. Tropical 
Depression Daniel located about 520 nm W-SW of the southern tip 
of Baja California continues to move WNW and away from the 
region. This will allow high pressure located north of the 
Hawaiian Islands to build modestly SE into the region and bring 
a return to more typical NW wind flow across the offshore 
waters. Winds are expected to become moderate Tue through Wed as 
the high pressure NW of the area shifts eastward tightening the 
pressure gradient. Gentle southerly winds in the Gulf of 
California are generally producing seas of 3 ft or less. A weak 
pressure pattern and variable winds will prevail Mon through 
early Wed, then southerly winds will increase to moderate 
through early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly wind will develop 
north of 29N Thu morning prevailing through Friday, where seas 
are expected to range between 5-7 ft.

A lingering 1010 mb low pressure center near 15N106W continues 
to act as a focus for scattered moderate convection from 10N to 
near the coast offshore of Acapulco. This low will drift SE for 
the next few days and weaken, and continue to produce active 
weather across the area waters offshore from Manzanillo to 
Puerto Angel. 

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell across the regional waters 
from central Baja California to Central America will prevail 
through Wed to maintain seas of 4-7 ft across the offshore 
waters as well as entrance to Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next 
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the 
monsoon trough, except for moderate to fresh offshore winds 
across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
expected south of the trough axis, increasing to strong early 
Tue due to a developing low pressure near 08N97W. Fresh to 
strong winds will prevail associated with this low with seas 
building up to 12 ft Tue night. Very active convection is 
occurring in the vicinity of the low and is expected to remain 
active for the next few days. This area of low pressure is begin 
monitored for the potential development of a tropical cyclone 
later in the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to 
near 125W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally 
ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to 
shift east Tue through Wed night and will increase NE winds 
across north central and northwest portions of the discussion 
area this afternoon through Wed. These freshening NE winds will 
support building seas to 8-10 ft in mixed swell Tue through Thu.

$$
Ramos