000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251622 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 1500 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 19.0N 117.8W or about 500 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NW at 8 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds have diminished to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen in satellite imagery within 120 nm across the SW semicircle and within 90 nm across the N quadrant. Daniel has begun the expected weakening trend this morning as it is entering into a more stable environment and cooler waters. Gradual and steady weakening is expected over the next few days as Daniel moves more west northwest and then westward by late Tue. Daniel is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N89W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 08.5N93W to 1010 mb low near 16N105W, then resumes near 14N115W TO 10N121W. The ITCZ extends from 10N121W and continues to 10.5N131W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 78W and 103W, and from 06N to 17N between 103W and 110W. Scattered moderate from 03N to 11N west of 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A very weak pressure gradient persists across the region this morning as a surface trough is present along the Gulf of California, and the remnants of an old trough have shifted westward across the offshore waters to near 121W. Tropical Storm Daniel is located about 500 nm W-SW of the southern tip of Baja California and moving NW away from the region. As Daniel continues farther westward over the next 24 hours, high pressure located north of the Hawaiian Islands will build modestly SE into the region and bring a return to more typical NW wind flow across the offshore water. Gentle NW winds are expected to develop by this afternoon, with day time heating leading to fresh seabreezes near the coast. Wind are then expected to become moderate Tue through Wed as the high pressure NW of the area shifts eastward tightening the pressure gradient. Gentle southerly winds in the Gulf of California are generally producing seas of 3 ft or less, except for moderate winds across far north portions. A weak pressure pattern and variable winds will prevail Mon through early Wed, then southerly winds will increase to moderate through early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly wind will develop north of 29N Thu morning prevailing through Friday. Seas are expected to range between 5-7 ft. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell across the regional waters from central Baja California to Central America will prevail through Wed to maintain seas of 4-7 ft across the offshore waters as well as entrance to Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell with seas 5 to 8 ft will begin gradually subside through tonight. A pair of tropical waves moving south of Guatemala and the Tehuantpec region the past 24 hours have begin to create an elongated area of low pressure between 90W and 100W, where a 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near 08.5N93W. Very active convection is occurring here and expected to remain active for the next few days. This area of low pressure is begin monitored for the potential development of a tropical cyclone later in the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 125W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift east by Wed night and will increase NE winds across north central and northwest portions of the discussion area this afternoon through Wed. These freshening NE winds will support building seas to 8-10 ft in mixed swell Tue through Thu. $$ Stripling