000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 0900 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 18.8N 116.9W or about 470 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NNW at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the southwest semicircle with isolated moderate convection occurring in bands within 210 nm southeast semicircle. Daniel is expected to begin weakening today as it starts to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days and Daniel is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 08N93W to a 1010 mb low near 16N105W, then resumes near 14N116W and continues to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W and continues to 10N130W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 94W and 108W. Scattered moderate from 03N to 11N west of 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between a surface trough in the Gulf of California and Tropical Storm Daniel moving over open Pacific waters SW of Baja California is maintaining light and variable winds across the offshore waters west of Baja. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to develop Wed night over the offshores west of Baja as strong high pressure NW of the area shifts eastward tightening the pressure gradient. Southerly winds in the Gulf of California are generally 5-10 kt with seas of 2-3 ft. A weak pressure pattern and variable winds will prevail Mon through early Wed, then southerly winds will increase to moderate through early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly wind will develop north of 29N Thu morning prevailing through Friday. Seas are expected to range between 5-7 ft. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell across the regional waters from central Baja California to Central America will prevail through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 14N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell with seas to 8 ft will begin gradually subside through tonight. Former tropical wave near 92W evolved into a 1011 mb low near 08N93W, which is forecast to merge with a tropical wave west of Costa Rica. This enhanced area of low pressure will continue to generate showers and tstms in the region through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 128W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift east by Wed night. However, north swell will support fresh winds with seas to 10 ft starting Monday morning and continuing to Thu. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 16N105W, and generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 165 nm north and 240 nm south of the center. Global models indicate that this low will linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to generate active convection. $$ Ramos