000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 0300 UTC Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 17.9N 116.4W or about 470 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving NNW at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center of Daniel with scattered moderate convection occurring in bands within 210 nm southeast semicircle. Daniel is likely to begin weakening overnight as it continues moving NNW as it starts to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days and Daniel is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N94W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 16N105W, then resumes near 13N116W and continues to 09N121W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W and continues along 10N132W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 85W and 100W, from 06N to 12N between 100W and 108W, and from 02N to 10N west of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient between a surface trough in the Gulf of California and Tropical Storm Daniel moving over open Pacific waters SW of Baja California is maintaining light and variable winds across the offshore waters west of Baja. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to develop Wed night over the offshores west of Baja as strong high pressure NW of the area shifts eastward tightening the pressure gradient. Southerly winds inside the northern Gulf of California are generally 10-15 kt with the strongest winds N of 29N where seas are up to 4 ft. Seas of 2-3 ft are south of 29N. A weak pressure pattern and variable winds will prevail Mon through Wed. Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell remains across the regional waters from central Baja California to Central America. Seas of 5-6 ft in the mouth of the Gulf of California and seas of 6-9 ft offshore of southern Mexico to the Tehuantepec region will continue to slowly subside tonight through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell with seas to 7 ft will begin gradually subside tonight through Mon. A tropical wave along 92W will continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active convection in the region during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 128W. To the S and SW of the ridge and N of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift east by Wed night. However, north swell will support fresh winds with seas to 10 ft starting Monday morning and continuing to Thu. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15N105W, and generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 165 nm north and 240 nm south of the center. Global models indicate that this low will linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to generate active convection. $$ Ramos