000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N104W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12.7N115.5W to 09N121W. The ITCZ continues from 09N121W to 08N130W to 10N140W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms within 120 nm of the coasts from Nicaragua to Colombia. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 91W and 100W, from 08N to 18N between 99W and 110W, from 09N to 14N between 112W and 120W and from 07N to 15N W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds are forecast to continue across the waters west of Baja California through this morning before beginning to gradually diminish through the weekend, as a broad surface trough shifts westward to the NE Pacific waters. Winds west of the peninsula will become variable less than 15 kt through the weekend. However, southerly winds will increase inside the Gulf of California this weekend, becoming fresh to strong southeasterly N of 28N this morning, continuing into Sun morning. Seas in the northern Gulf of California will build to 6- 9 ft by this afternoon, then subside Sun along with a decrease in surface winds. Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell reaches the waters off Southern Mexico with seas to 6 ft, forecast to increase to 7 ft by this afternoon. Seas are expected to subside Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is across southern forecast waters with seas to 8 ft. The swell will propagate further north to the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Colombia today and then will gradually subside through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure north of the area centered near 36N138W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 12N west of 130W with seas generally ranging between 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the basin. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters with seas building to 8 ft north of 29N between 123W and 127W early Sun. Cross-equatorial southerly swell with seas to 9 ft are south of 10N and west of 91W and will continue through Sunday evening. Low pressure centered near 12N115W and embedded along the monsoon trough has an estimated pressure of 1010 mb. Model guidance shows this low emerging from the trough and drifting northward with a gradual increase in intensity through the weekend. Active thunderstorms will continue in the vicinity of this low through the weekend and early next week. A 1010 mb low pressure is near 13.8N104.7W generating scattered moderate convection from 09N to 18N between 98W and 110W. Global models guidance indicate there is a high chance for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone SW of Mexico early next week. $$ Ramos