000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 UTC Thu Jun 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed N of 05N near 96.5W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 08N to 
12N between 91W and 100W. Westward progress of this wave has 
started to slow as anticipated. This wave will be one to watch 
with interest for potential tropical development this weekend 
into early next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N106W to 13N113W to
07N122W. The ITCZ extends from 07N122W to 09N133W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N 
between 88W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection was noted from 08N to 11N between 100W and 105W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N
to 06N between 122W and 131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will 
prevail through late today. A pulse of northerly swell will 
propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte by the end of
the week, building seas to near 8 ft Saturday. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds will prevail over the open waters the next 
several days. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate 
into the waters off Southern Mexico by the end of the week, which
will build seas to near 7 ft by Saturday. Seas will subside
Sunday into early next week. 

Gulf of California: Winds will increase to moderate Friday, then
moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf and fresh to strong N of 
29N by Saturday morning as the pressure gradient gradually 
tightens. Seas will build to 4 to 7 ft as the winds increase. The
wind will then diminish to light by Monday with seas subsiding 
to 2 ft or less.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 11N the next 
several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon
trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevailing S of 
the monsoon trough. A pulse of long period SW swell will reach 
the waters W of Ecuador today, with combined seas building to 7 
to 9 ft late Fri, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The
swell will continue to spread across the southern forecast 
waters, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft S of 08N early Sat. Seas 
will subside on Sun and Mon. 
 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
 
Low pressure of 1011 mb is centered near 12N115.5W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N 
between 109W and 120W. This low will linger through the end of 
the week, then may shift NE thereafter with possible deepening.

A trough is analyzed from 12N135W to 05N139W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 135W 
and 140W. Seas to 8 ft are noted within 150 nm NW of the trough.
The trough will drift westward, moving west of 140W Fri night.

High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 32N135W extends a ridge 
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate trades 
prevail west of 120W, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas
N of 20N have subsided to 4 to 6 ft. A fresh pulse of northerly 
swell will propagate into the northern waters today, with seas 
building to 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W Friday. 
Cross equatorial southerly swell will build seas to 6 to 9 ft 
south of 10N and west of 90W late Friday. Seas associated to this
swell will start to subside Sunday into early next week.

$$
AL