000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 UTC Thu Jun 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed N of 05N near 95.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 90W and 100W. Westward progress of this wave has started to slow as anticipated. This wave will be one to watch with interest for potential tropical development this weekend into early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 12N115W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to 09N133W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 82W and 86W, and also from 08N to 11N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 100W and 105W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula will prevail through late Thursday. Moderate seas offshore of the Baja peninsula will subside slightly by Thursday. A new pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte by the end of the week, building seas to near 8 ft Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail over the open waters the next several days. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate into the waters off Southern Mexico by the end of the week, which will build seas to near 7 ft by Saturday, then subsiding for the end of the weekend into early next week. Gulf of California: Winds will increase to moderate Friday, then moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf and fresh to strong N of 29N by Saturday morning as the pressure gradient gradually tightens. Seas will build to 4 to 7 ft as the winds increase. The wind will then diminish to light by Monday with seas subsiding to 2 ft or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will prevail near 10N through Thursday before slowly lifting northward. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevailing S of the monsoon trough. A pulse of long period SW swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft late Friday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The swell will continue to spread across the southern forecast waters, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft S of 08N early Saturday. Seas will subside Sunday and Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1011 mb is centered near 11.5N116.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 110W and 120W. This low will linger through the end of the week, then may shift NE thereafter with possible deepening. A trough is analyzed from 12N135W to 05N139W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 129W and 140W. Seas to 8 ft are noted within 180 nm NW of the trough. The trough will drift WSW during the next 24-48 hours before crossing 140W. High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 32N133W extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate trades prevail west of 120W, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas N of 20N have subsided to 4 to 6 ft. A fresh pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Thursday, with seas building to 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W Friday. Southerly swell will cross the equator on by Thursday morning, building seas to 6 to 9 ft south of 10N and west of 90W late Friday. Seas associated to this swell will start to subside Sunday into early next week. $$ AL