000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192158 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed earlier today near 97W is no longer discernible in satellite imagery and has not been included in the latest surface analysis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 90W/91W moving west near 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous convection associated with this wave is described below and continues to shift westward with and ahead, currently between 90W and 101W. Global models suggest this wave will slow its forward progress through Wed. Expect active convection to continue generally between 90W and 100W tonight. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W TO 10N81W TO 07N92W TO 11N98W, where it breaks, then resumes from 14N103W TO 07.5N121W. The ITCZ then continues from 07.5N121W TO 07N133W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N east of 90W to the coast of Colombia, within 60 nm NW and 270 nm SE of the trough between 103W and 115W, and from 05N to 11.5N between 128W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted ahead of the tropical wave from 04N to 12N between 90W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northwesterly winds were depicted in early afternoon scatterometer data across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected to prevail the remainder of the week before broad troffing develops across the peninsula and drifts westward into the Pacific waters over the weekend. Seas are currently in the 5-7 ft range and will subside to 4-6 ft by Thursday. A new pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California Norte Thu through Fri, and build seas to near 8 ft across the outer waters through Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, with seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail over the open waters the next several days. Cross equatorial southerly swell will propagate into the waters off Southern Mexico by the end of the week, which will build seas to near 7 ft by Saturday. Very active convection associated with a tropical wave along 90W/91W is expected to remain active this evening through tonight between 90W and 100W, to the south of the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander along 10N through Thu before slowly lifting northward Fri and Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevailing S of the monsoon trough. A strong pulse of cross equatorial SW swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by early Thursday, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft Fri and Sat, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The swell will continue to spread across the southern forecast waters, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft S of 08N by Friday evening. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 mb centered near 37N135W extends a modest ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails over the waters north of 20N, while gentle to moderate trades prevail S of 20N and west of 120W, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Seas N of 20N will subside slightly to 4-6 ft by Wednesday evening. A fresh pulse of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Thursday, with seas building to 6-8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W Friday. Southerly swell will cross the equator on Wed, building seas to 6-9 ft south of 10N and west of 90W late Friday. $$ Stripling