000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 UTC Tue Jun 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta centered near 18.2N 103.6W at 19/0300 UTC or 80 nm W of Lazaro Cardenas Mexico moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm east and 120 nm west semicircles. Rough seas and surf can be expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system through early Tue, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. Carlotta is expected to continue moving slowly NW and generally parallel to the coast before dissipation of the central circulation within the next 12 to 24 hours. However, areas of heavy rain are possible over southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during this time. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of tropical wave is near 94W moving westward near 10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is occurring along the monsoon through with isolated convection elsewhere both to the east and west of the wave axis. This wave will also provide moisture for active convection across the coastal zones of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico during the next 24 to 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 07N91W to 10N99W. It resumes from 14N106W to 09N122W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 07N128W to 09N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 06N to 11N between 109W and 124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 136W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about Post Tropical Cyclone Carlotta. Moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California this afternoon, with afternoon heating enhancing winds to near 20 kt across a few coastal areas. This pattern is expected to continue for the next few days, with late afternoon heating enhancing winds to around 20 kt through the evening hours. Seas currently range 5 to 7 feet in NW swell and will diminish very slightly through Wednesday. Increasing NW to N winds are forecast along and offshore of southern and central California, which will generate an increase in northerly swell moving into the Baja waters Thu through Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 08.5N and 10N during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 10N through tonight before subsiding. A new and larger pulse of long period SW swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the area north of 15N and westward of 115W, as a weak and narrow ridge extends SE into the area from a 1024 mb high near 45N136W. The ridge will change little in strength and orientation through Wed before it begins to strengthen. Mainly moderate tradewinds and seas less than 8 ft will prevail through Wed south of this ridge, before the strengthening high produces a modest increase in tradewinds and seas south of 26N and west of 128W Thu and Fri. A new pulse of SW to S swell generating across and east of French Polynesia will cross the equator on Wed, and is expected to arrive across the regional waters Wed night. Seas across the offshore waters of Central America will build, reaching 6-9 ft Friday. $$ AL