000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Carlotta is near 17.7N 102.6W at 18/0900 UTC, or 30 nm SW of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, moving NW 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 16N to 19N between 101W and 105W. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 99W and 102W. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the nearshore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W/97W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within a 30 nm radius of 15N95.5W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through S Costa Rica near 09N83W, 07N91W and 10N97W, and then it resumes along 15N104W 13N109W 11N112W. The ITCZ is along 11N112W 09N124W 07N125W 08N132W beyond 06N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N from 80W eastward. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 10N between 80W and 86W, within 150 nm S of monsoon trough between 90W and 98W, from 07N to 11N between 105W and 124W, and from 05N to 08N between 135W and 140W. A surface trough is along 13N132W 10N134W 06N135W, embedded in the ITCZ. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 11N between 132W and 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about Tropical Depression Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet will prevail elsewhere over the open waters, except locally to fresh winds within 60 nm W of the Baja California Peninsula through the early part of the week. The Gulf of California: moderate southerly winds N of 30N this morning, before diminishing. Light to gentle winds elsewhere. Sea heights in the Gulf of California: N of 30N will be 3 feet or less into tomorrow morning, and ranging from 3 to 5 feet near the entrance of the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently passing through S Costa Rica to 07N91W and 10N97W, will linger during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 10N through tonight before subsiding. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will reach the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northerly swell, that is propagating into the northern waters N of 25N W of 120W, with combined seas reaching 8 feet, will remain only for the next 24 hours or so. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 115W westward. Mainly moderate winds and seas less than 8 ft will prevail through the week. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell, with sea heights ranging from 7 to 8 feet, barely is in the area from 03.4S between 114W and 120W at present. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will arrive across the southern waters, starting on Wednesday morning as it crosses 03.4S along 120W, and then it moves to just to the west of the offshore waters area, from Costa Rica to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, starting late Friday night. $$ mt