000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2100 UTC Sun Jun 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Carlotta centered near 17.1N 101.9W at 17/2100 UTC or 56 nm SSE of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the nearshore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends N of 13N along 94W moving W at around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates that this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within an area bounded by 17N95W to 14N91W to 04N95W to 13N100W to 17N95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 16N99W, then resumes near 14N06W to 08N122W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 08N122W to 06N128W to 07N132W, then resumes near 07N136W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N between 79W and 81W, from 06N to 08N between 82W and 84W, from 10N to 14N between 113W and 117W, within 120 nm either side of the axis between 121W and 131W, and from 03N to 07N W of 136W. Weak surface low pressure of 1012 mb has developed from a trough along the ITCZ near 08N133W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm in the N semicircle of the low, and within 180 nm in the S semicircle of the low. No further development of this low is expected. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about Tropical Depression Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet will prevail elsewhere over the open waters, except locally to fresh winds within 60 nm W of the Baja California Peninsula through the early part of the week. In the Gulf of California, moderate southerly winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N through this evening before diminishing, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of California N of 29N will be in the 4 to 6 ft range through this evening before subsiding, with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough currently extending from near the Gulf of Papagayo to 13N94W will linger during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 10N through tonight before subsiding. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will arrive across the waters W of Ecuador by Thu with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northerly swell is propagating into the northern waters, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft N of 25N and W of 120W through Mon before subsiding. Otherwise, surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward from 118W westward. Mainly moderate winds and seas less than 8 ft will prevail through the week. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, although combined seas N of the equator are less than 8 ft. This swell will decay slowly during the next couple of days. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will arrive across the southern waters by Thu with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft S of 06N by Thu night, reaching to 10N and E of 115W by Fri. $$ Lewitsky