000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1545 UTC Sun Jun 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta centered near 17.2N 101.3W at 17/1500 UTC or 30 nm SSE of Zihuatanejo Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm in the SE quadrant and within 240 nm in the W semicircle. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis extends N of 10N along 93W moving W around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 270 nm NW of a line from 14N90W to 08N95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N73W to 10N86W to 15N98W, then resumes from 14N109W to 09N120W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N120W to 06N127W to 07N131W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N within 120 nm W of the coast of Colombia, within 90 nm either side of the axis between 113W and 116W, within 75 nm either side of the axis between 117W and 123W, within 150 nm either side of the axis between 124W and 131W, and also from 03N to 07N W of 138W. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ and extends from 08N131W to 04N139W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm NW of the trough E of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet will prevail elsewhere over the open waters, except locally to fresh winds within 60 nm W of the Baja California Peninsula through the early part of the week. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N through today before diminishing, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of California N of 29N will be in the 4 to 6 ft range through today before subsiding, with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N/11N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N through tonight before subsiding. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will arrive across the waters W of Ecuador by Thu with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northerly swell is propagating into the northern waters, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft N of 24N and W of 120W through Mon before subsiding. Otherwise, surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward from 118W westward. Mainly moderate winds and seas less than 8 ft will prevail through the week. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, although combined seas N of the equator are less than 8 ft. This swell will decay slowly during the next couple of days. A new and larger set of long period SW swell will arrive across the southern waters by Thu with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft S of 06N by Thu night. $$ Lewitsky