000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 17.0N 100.7W at 17/0900 UTC, or 70 nm SE of Zihuatanejo Mexico moving NW 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Carlotta is forecast to move inland today Sunday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information about the marine impacts. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. Precipitation: SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 101.5W AND 103.5W. A TROPICAL WAVE is along 91W/92W S of 18N. Precipitation: SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND TROPICAL WAVE. .INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 08N87W TO 09N90W. IT RESUMES FROM 11N107W TO 11N115W TO 10N119W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N119W TO 07N124W TO 06N130W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N132W 08N134W 05N136W. Precipitation: SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 116W AND 118W, AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet, will prevail elsewhere over the open waters. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N through the remainder of the weekend before diminishing, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of California north of 29N will be in the 3-5 ft range through the remainder of the weekend before subsiding, with seas in the 1-3 ft range elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N today before subsiding. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through the end of the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward from 118W westward. A surface trough, the remnants of Aletta, is along 19N114W 16N115W 13N116W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the forecast waters. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Sunday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, resulting in an area of seas greater than 8 ft, south of a line from 06N121W to 00N97W. This swell will subside slowly during the next couple of days. $$ mt