000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170345 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jun 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 16.6N 99.9W at 17/0300 UTC, or 20 nm S of Acapulco Mexico moving NW 5 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Carlotta is forecast to move inland Sunday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information about the marine impacts. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Punta Maldonado to Tecpan De Galeana. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers within 90 nm southwest semicircle. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N86W and 12N90W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to 06N124W beyond 07N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 12N northward to land from 103W eastward to land, from 06N to 13N between 105W and 117W, and from 03N to 10N between 122W and 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for details about Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet, will prevail elsewhere over the open waters. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N through the remainder of the weekend before diminishing, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of California north of 29N will be in the 3-5 ft range through the remainder of the weekend before subsiding, with seas in the 1-3 ft range elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N today before subsiding. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through the end of the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 12N northward from 118W westward. A surface trough, the remnants of Aletta, is along 19N114W 16N115W 13N116W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the forecast waters. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Sunday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, resulting in an area of seas greater than 8 ft, south of a line from 06N121W to 00N97W. This swell will subside slowly during the next couple of days. $$ MT