000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161516 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1445 UTC Sat Jun 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Carlotta centered near 15.9N 99.3W at 16/1500 UTC or 50 nm WSW of Punta Maldonado Mexico remains stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Carlotta is forecast to move inland Sunday morning. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 96W and 102W. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated with this system, especially from Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N90W to 12N95W. It resumes from 12N102W to 11N106W to 11N112W to 09N119W. The ITCZ extends from 09N119W to 07N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 07N east of 79W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 13N between 85W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 11N between 102W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N between 129W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for details about Carlotta. Outside of the influence of Carlotta, gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet, will prevail elsewhere over the open waters. Over the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the waters N of 29N through the remainder of the weekend before diminishing, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of California north of 29N will be in the 3-5 ft range through the remainder of the weekend before subsiding, with seas in the 1-3 ft range elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N today before subsiding. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through the end of the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. The remnants of Aletta are noted near 16N116W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters. Northerly swell is bringing seas greater than 8 ft over the waters north of 29N between 120W and 133W. Additional northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters tonight, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, resulting in an area of seas greater than 8 ft, south of a line from 08N121W to 00N97W. This swell will slowly subside the next couple of days. $$ AL