000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161001
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
904 UTC Sat Jun 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 15.8N 99.5W at 
16/0900 UTC, or 60 nm WSW of Punta Maldonado Mexico, and it is 
stationary. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. 
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers 
are within 120 nm SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 45 nm NW semicircle, and 
within 150 nm SE semicircle. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be
expected in the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated 
with this system, especially from Acapulco to Lagunas de 
Chacahua. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details, and the
NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers 
FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts.

A 1008 mb low pressure center, the remnant of Bud, is inland in
Mexico, near 28N109W. No significant deep convective 
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface trough is along 19N112W, 17N116W, 13N118W, 
11N121W...the remnant low center of Aletta has dissipated. 
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 
11N between the monsoon trough and the surface trough.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 09N84W to 09N89W, and 12N95W. 
The monsoon trough continues from 13N103W to 12N111W to 08N118W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N118W to 05N124W to 07N131W beyond 
05N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
from 04N to 06N E of 78W, from 10N to 14N between 86W and 89W, 
and from 11N to 12N between 90W and 91W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 08N to 09N between 83W and 85W, from 04N to
11N between 91W and 94W, from 08N to 12N between 104W and 108W, 
and from 06N to 08N between 134W and 137W. isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 02N to 18N from
140W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for details about
Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the range of 5 
to 7 feet, will prevail elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward 
during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas
of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N through Sat. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through the end of 
the period. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is along 19N112W, 17N116W, 13N118W, 
11N121W...the remnant low center of Aletta has dissipated. A 
surface ridge covers the waters north of 20N west of 120W. Gentle
to moderate winds prevails across much of the forecast waters, 
with seas in the 5-7 feet range. Northerly swell will propagate 
into the far northern waters north of 29N from 120W westward. 
Additional northerly swell will propagate into the northern 
waters Saturday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north 
of 20N through early next week before subsiding.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the
southern waters, resulting in an area of seas, ranging from 8 to
9 feet, south of 00N between 100W and 120W.

$$
MT