000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160359
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
318 UTC Sat Jun 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Carlotta is near 15.8N 99.2W at 
16/0300 UTC, or 80 nm SSE of Acapulco Mexico moving SE 1 knot. 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.  
Precipitation: numerous moderate to scattered strong rainshowers
are within a 60 nm radius of the center in the south quadrant. 
Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected over the near shore
waters of southern Mexico associated to this system, especially 
from Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua. Please read the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
for more details, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on 
marine impacts.

A 1005 mb low pressure center, the remnant of Bud, is near
26N110W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

A 1010 mb low pressure center, the remnant of Aletta, is 16N117W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 09N84W to 10N90W, and 11N95W.
The monsoon trough continues from 12N118W to 06N129W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N129W beyond 06N140W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 80W eastward, and
from 04N to 15N between 82W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for details about
Carlotta. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas in the range of 5 
to 7 feet, will prevail. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward 
during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas
of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N through Sat. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through the end of 
the period. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of Aletta are located near 16N117W and continue to 
weaken. A surface ridge covers the waters north of 20N west of
120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevails across much of the 
forecast waters, with seas in the 5-7 feet range. Northerly 
swell will propagate into the far northern waters north of 29N 
between 123W and 129W. Additional northerly swell will propagate 
into the northern waters Saturday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range 
prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the
southern waters, resulting in an area of seas in the 7 to 9 foot
range south of 09N between 100W and 130W.

$$
MT