000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1940 UTC Fri Jun 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud centered near 25.9N 110.2W at 15/2100 UTC or 70 nm E of Loreto Mexico moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Bud will continue to weaken and move inland over Mexico tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details. Refer to the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta centered near 16.1N 99.3W at 15/2100 UTC or 60 nm SE of Acapulco Mexico moving NE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 12N to 17N between 93W and 101W. The system is forecast to intensify and move inland over southern Mexico Saturday. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be expected over the near shore waters of southern Mexico associated to this system, especially from Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. Refer to the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2, for more information on marine impacts. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N90W to 11N94W. It resumes from 13N117W to 08.5N128W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 12N between 79W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 14N between 107W and 118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 09N between 138W and 140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for details about Bud and Carlotta. Outside the influence of the tropical systems, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough, currently along 10N, will drift northward during the next few days. Long period SW swell will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of 10N through Sat. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough, through Tue night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Aletta are located near 16N117W and continue to weaken. A ridge of high pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevails across much of the forecast waters, with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Northerly swell will propagate into the far northern waters north of 29N between 123W and 129W. Additional northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Saturday, with seas in the 6-8 ft range prevailing north of 20N through early next week before subsiding. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the southern waters, resulting in an area of seas in the 7 to 9 foot range south of 09N between 100W and 130W. $$ AL