000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 947 UTC Fri Jun 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bud is near 24.6N 110.1W at 15/0900 UTC or 30 nm NNE of La Paz Mexico moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers are from 23N to 26N between 107W and 110W. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California and the Gulf of California through Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC for more details, and for the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast, check the WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information. The center of Tropical Depression Four-E is near 15.3N 100.2W at 15/0900 UTC or 100 nm S of Acapulco Mexico stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection has increased over the past few hours with this system. At this time, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-17N between 98W- 103W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 12N90W to 15N98W, then resumes near 14N102W to 14N110W. The monsoon trough resumes again from a 1008 mb low near 16N118W to 08N130W. ITCZ develops from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough portion that extends from Central America to 15N98W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough from 100W-110W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Bud, and for Tropical Depression Four-E. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the NW of a weak surface low centered near 17N118W. The combination of the ridge with lower pressures over Baja California due to the presence of T.S. Bud, will support moderate NW winds in the waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through this morning. Northerly swell originating from north of the area supports 7-8 ft seas W of northern Baja California on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is lifting northward, slowly, across the forecast waters, and will be near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Aletta are located near 16N118W and continue to weaken. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 10N northward from 122W westward. Little change is expected during the next several days. Fresh trade winds will continue across the tropics, south of the ridge, through the weekend. Northerly swell generated north of 30N is combining with swell generated from Bud to produce seas of 7 to 9 feet in the northern forecast waters on Sat. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 130W, resulting in area of 8 to 9 foot seas in equatorial waters through Saturday. $$ ERA