000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150333
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
332 UTC Fri Jun 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bud is near 23.1N 109.5W at 15/0300 UTC or
30 nm ENE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving N at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC
for more details. Scattered moderate showers are from 19N to 26N
between 106W and 113W. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW 
into southern Baja California and the Gulf of California through 
Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC and WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3 for more details, and 
for the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast check the WMO/AWIPS headers
FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information.

The center of Tropical Depression Four-E is near 15.4N 100.3W at
15/0300 UTC or 160 nm SSE of Zihuatanejo Mexico moving NNW at 3 
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along Central America reaching the EPAC
waters near 09N84W to 15N98W, then resumes near 14N102W to
14N110W. The monsoon trough resumes again from 13N119W to
07N131W. ITCZ is from that point to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection prevails along Central America to 10N87W. 
Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the 
monsoon trough through 115W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about 
Tropical Storm Bud, and for Tropical Depression Four-E.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the NW 
of the remnant low pressure of Aletta, from 10N northward from 
122W westward. The combination of the ridge, and lower pressures
over Baja California, will support moderate NW winds in the 
waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through tonight. NW 
swell originating from north of the area supports 7-8 ft seas W 
of northern Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is lifting northward, slowly, across the 
forecast waters, and will be near 12N during the next couple of 
days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon 
trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S 
of the monsoon trough through the weekend. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-tropical remnant low Aletta near 16N119W continues to 
weaken. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is 
from 10N northward from 122W westward. Little change is expected 
during the next several days. Fresh trade winds will continue 
across the tropics, south of the ridge, through Saturday. 

Northerly swell generated north of 30N is combining with swell 
generated from Aletta and Bud, in order to produce seas of 7 to 
9 feet in the northern forecast waters. 

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the 
equator E of 130W, resulting in area of 8 to 9 foot seas in 
equatorial waters through Saturday.

$$

ERA