000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140900 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bud centered near 21.3N 109.4W at 03900 UTC about 100 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 6 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Deep convection associated with this system continues to decrease. Scattered moderate convection is found in a convective band between 60-120 nm in the N semicircle. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California and the Gulf of California through Fri. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. A disorganized area low pressure centered near 13.5N9100W is embedded within the monsoon trough. Scatterometer data at 0330 UTC and yesterday at 1620 UTC both indicated a surface trough with 20-25 kt winds south and southeast of a poorly defined circulation center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident within 100 nm east of this point. NHC estimates there is a medium chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 14N96W to low pres near 13.5N100W to 14N110W to 06N131W. The ITCZ continues from 06N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within 270 nm south of the trough axis between 86W and 109W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in special features section for more on Tropical Storm Bud and a developing low pressure SSW of Acapulco. Elsewhere, a broad ridge NW of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate NW winds over the waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through tonight. NW swell originating from north of the area supports 7-8 ft seas W of northern Baja California, merged and reinforced by swell generated remnant low Aletta and Tropical Storm Bud, creating a confused state of swell direction W of Baja California Sur today. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the remainder of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is slowly lifting north across the forecast waters, and will be near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Aletta centered near 16N119W continues to weaken. A broad ridge prevails over the NW forecast waters, roughly N of 15N and W of 120W. Little change is expected the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics south of the ridge through Saturday. Northerly swell generated north of 30N is combining with swell generated from Aletta and Bud to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft over the northern forecast waters. In addition, long period cross- equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 130W, resulting in area of 8 ft seas in equatorial waters through Sat. $$ Mundell