000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1916 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bud is centered near 19.9N 108.9W at 2100 UTC or 190 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 5 kt. Minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Deep convection associated with this system continues to rapidly decrease. Scattered moderate convection is found within 90 nm in the W semicircle and within 150 nm in the E semicircle. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California late Thu, then pass over the Gulf of California later on Fri. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW winds will affect the waters S of 25N and E of 113W Thu night and Fri. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. An area of developing low pressure measuring 1009 mb is currently centered SSE of Acapulco, Mexico within the monsoon trough near 11.5N98.5W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 150 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is evident elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 94W and 102W. This system possesses a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as well as the next 5 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N79W across Panama and Costa Rica to 12N95W to low pres 1009 mb centered near 11.5N98.5W to 12N103W, then resumes S of T.S. Bud near 13N108W to 12N115W to 06N131W. The ITCZ continues from 06N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 08N to 13N between 93W and 102W, and from 06N to 13N between 102W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 120W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in special features section for more on Tropical Storm Bud and developing low pressure SSW of Acapulco. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate NW winds over the waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through Thu. A pulse of NW swell maintains 8 ft seas W of northern Baja California, merged with swell generated earlier by Aletta, and additional swell generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to the confused state of swell directions W of Baja California Sur through Thu. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will slowly lift N across the forecast waters from near 10N to near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Aletta, centered near 16N119W, remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to weaken. Satellite- derived wind data from around 1800Z indicates peak winds associated with this system have decreased to around 15 kt. 8-foot seas on the W side of the system will continue to slowly diminish. The low will gradually degenerate into a surface trough by Thu night. A ridge extending SE from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 37N143W to near the Revillagigedo Islands will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated by strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft over the northern forecast waters. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 130W, and additional swell generated by Tropical Storm Bud will add to the mix and maintain seas near 8 ft for the equatorial waters through Sat. $$ CAM