000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1339 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Bud is centered near 19.4N 108.8W at 1500 UTC or 220 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 3 kt. Minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Deep convection associated with this system continues to rapidly decrease. Scattered moderate convection is sheared to the SE side of this system and is found within 90 nm in the NW semicircle and within 150 nm in the SE semicircle. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California late Thu, then pass over the Gulf of california later on Fri. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo San Lucas. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW winds will affect the waters S of 25N and E of 113W Thu night and Fri. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74W to 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to low pres 1009 mb centered near 12N98W to 11N101W, then resumes SW of T.S. Bud near 13N112W to 07N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07N130W to 06N137W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 15N between 93W and 102W, and from 06N to 13N between 102W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of a line from 08N118W to 04N128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate NW winds over the waters N of 25N and west of Baja Peninsula through Thu. A pulse of NW swell maintains 8 ft seas W of northern Baja California, merged with swell generated earlier by Aletta, and additional swell generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to the confused state of swell directions W of Baja California Sur through Thu. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will slowly lift N across the forecast waters from near 10N to near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Aletta, centered near 16N119W, remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to weaken. Satellite- derived wind data from around 0530Z indicates peak winds associated with this system have decreased to around 20 kt. 8 to 9-foot seas on the W side of the system will continue to slowly diminish. The low will gradually degenerate into a surface trough by Thu night. A ridge extending SE from 1027 mb high pressure centered near 32N142W to near the Revillagigedo Islands will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated by strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft over the northern forecast waters. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 120W, and new swell generated by Hurricane Bud will add to the mix and maintain seas near 8 ft for the equatorial waters through Sat. $$ CAM