000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Bud centered near 19.1N 108.8W at 0900 UTC or 230 nm 
SE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 4 kt. Minimum central 
pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts 
to 80 kt. Deep convection associated with the system continues 
to decrease. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
within 120 nm S and 90 nm N of the center. Bud will continue to 
weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California. A tropical 
storm watch is in effect from Santa Fe to La Paz, including Cabo 
San Lucas. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under 
WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas 
Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest 
information on this system. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W across Panama and Costa 
Rica to 11N90W to 13N102W, then resumes S of remnant low Aletta 
near 12N113 to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 11N between 
88W and 105W, and within 90 nm S of the trough axis between 108W 
and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See above in special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. 
Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja 
will support NW moderate winds west of Baja Peninsula through 
Thu. A pulse of NW swell maintains 8 ft seas W of northern Baja 
California, merged with swell generated earlier by Aletta, and 
additional swell generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to 
the confused state of swell directions W of Baja California Sur 
through Thu. 

Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of
Acapulco through the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough will slowly lift N across the forecast waters
from near 10N to near 12N during the next couple of days. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while 
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon 
through the week. 
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-tropical remnant low Aletta, centered near 16N120W, remains 
devoid of deep convection as it continues to weaken. Peak winds 
of 25 kt and associated seas of 8 ft will slowly diminish today. 
The low will gradually degenerate into a surface trough.
   
A ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the 
next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics 
to the south of the ridge through Thursday. 

Northerly swell generated by strong northerly winds along the 
coast of California is combining with swell generated from 
Aletta to produce seas to 7-9 ft over northern forecast waters. 
Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the 
equator E of 120W, and new swell generated by Hurricane Bud will 
continue to maintain high seas in equatorial waters the next day 
or so.

$$
Mundell