000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130350 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 18.7N 108.6W at 0300 UTC or 250 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Convection associated with Bud has begun to decrease in intensity. Scattered moderate strong convection is within 135 nm of the center 60 nm in NE quadrant. Bud will continue to weaken and move NNW into southern Baja California. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas. Please refer to latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W across Panama and Costa Rica to 11N88W to 10N102W, then resumes SW of remnant low Aletta near 10N124W to 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 09N between 85W and 100W, from 10N to 14N between 102W and 114W, and within 90 nm S of the trough axis between 121W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support NW moderate winds west of Baja Peninsula through Thu. A pulse of NW swell continues to maintain seas greater than 8 ft W of northern Baja California. This has merged with swell generated earlier by Aletta, and additional swell generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to the confused state of swell direction W of Baja California Sur through Thu. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will slowly lift N across the forecast waters from near 10N to near 12N during the next couple of days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-tropical remnant low Aletta, centered near 16N119W, remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to weaken. Peak winds of 25 kt and associated seas of 8-10 ft will slowly diminish during the next 1-2 days. The low will gradually degenerate into a surface trough. A ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated by strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 7-9 ft over northern forecast waters. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating N of the equator E of 120W, and new swell generated by Hurricane Bud will continue to maintain high seas in equatorial waters the next day or so. $$ Mundell