000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1357 UTC Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 18.4N 108.4W at 12/1500 UTC or 285 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Convection associated with Bud has begun to decrease in intensity. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present within an area bounded by 13N100W to 09N116W to 20N110W to 20N105W to 13N100W. A weakening trend is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday while Bud approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to 08N84W to a 1010 mb low centered near 09N95W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N116W to 06N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 07N between 77W and 83W, from 06N to 11N between 94W and 98W, and from 04N to 07N between 125W and 132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in the special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate winds west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. A pulse of NW swell continues to maintain seas greater than 8 ft W of northern Baja California. This batch of swell has merged with swell generated earlier this weekend by Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating a larger area of confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through tonight. Additional swell greater than 8 ft generated by Bud will propagate NW and add to the confused seas W of Baja California Sur through Thursday. Elsewhere, a tropical wave will produce convection SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next few days. Mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta is centered near 16N119W and remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to slowly weaken. Peak winds of 25 kt and associated seas of 11 ft will slowly diminish during the next couple of days. The remnant low will then drift in a cyclonic loop over the next few days while gradually degenerating into a surface trough. A surface ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 11 ft over the forecast waters N of 05N between 100W and 130W. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is causing seas along and just N of the equator E of 120W to build to near 8 ft while also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue to maintain seas in this area the next day or so. By Wed, the SW swell will diminish N of 05N which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over that region. The SE and SW swell crossing the equator will maintain seas near 8 ft along and just N of the Equator E of 135W for the next several days. $$ CAM