000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 930 UTC Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 18.1N 108.2W at 12/0900 UTC or 300 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection are within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are elsewhere from 09N to 21N between 102W and 113W. A weakening trend is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday while Bud approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1009 mb low centered near 12N94W to 12N101W. The monsoon trough resumes from 14N111W to 07N125W. The ITCZ begins at 07N125W and continues beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are present from 02N to 08N E of 82W, from 04N to 11N between 91W and 103W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above in the special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula tonight, decreasing to moderate through mid week. A pulse of NW swell continues to maintain seas greater than 8 ft W of northern Baja California. This swell has merged with swell generated earlier this weekend by Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating a larger area of confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through tonight. Additional swell greater than 8 ft generated by Bud will propagate NW, to the west of Baja California Sur ahead of the system through Thursday. Elsewhere, a tropical wave will produce convection S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Mainly gentle to moderate winds can be expected SE of Acapulco through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta is centered near 16N119W and remains devoid of deep convection as it continues to slowly weaken. Peak winds of 25 kt with seas to 11 ft will slowly diminish through tonight. The remnant low will then drift in a cyclonic loop over the next few days while gradually degenerating into a surface trough. A surface ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge through Thursday. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 11 ft over the forecast waters N of 02N between 90W and 130W. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is causing seas along and just N of the equator E of 120W to build to near 8 ft while also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next day or so. By Wed, the SW swell will diminish N of 05N which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over that region. The SE and SW swell crossing the equator will maintain seas near 8 ft along and just N of the Equator E of 135W for the next several days. $$ Latto