000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 330 UTC Tue Jun 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Bud centered near 17.6N 107.6W at 12/0300 UTC or 340 nm SSE of Cabo San Lucas Mexico moving NW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection are within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection are elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 104W and 112W. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours, but weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday while Bud approaches southern Baja California Sur. Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 12N101W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N111W to 07N125W. the ITCZ begins at 07N125W and continues beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are present from 05N to 12N between 91W and 102W and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 114W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta centered near 16.6N 118.3W at /2100 UTC or 610 nm SW of The Southern Tip of Baja California moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Aletta remains devoid of deep convection and continues slowly weaken. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. See above in the special features section for more on Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area and troughing over Baja will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula tonight, decreasing to moderate through mid week. A pulse of NW swell continues to maintain seas greater than 8 ft W of northern Baja California. This swell has merged with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating a larger area of confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridge extending across the northern waters will prevail the next several days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W through tonight. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California is combining with swell generated from Aletta to produce seas to 11 ft over almost all of the forecast waters between 90W and 130W. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is causing seas along the equator E of 115W to build to 8 ft while also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next day or so, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 90W through early this week. By Wed, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. SE and SW swell crossing the equator will maintain seas near 8 ft along the Equator E of 134W for the next several days. $$ Latto