000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 915 UTC Mon Jun 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Aletta centered near 17.0N 116.7W at 11/0900 UTC or 520 nm SW of The Southern Tip Of Baja California moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Aletta is steadily weakening again, and the latest forecast has Aletta weakening to a tropical depression by this afternoon. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. Hurricane Bud centered near 16.3N 106.1W at 11/0900 UTC or 250 nm S of Cabo Corrientes Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09N to 19N between 99W and 112W. Bud will continue to intensify today as it moves on a northwestward track. The system is then forecast to start a weakening trend tonight. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N95W. It resumes from 10N119W to 07N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N E of 97W, and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 113W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above for more on Tropical Storm Aletta and Hurricane Bud. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through tonight. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell has merged with swell generated by Tropical Storm Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula, generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist through early this week. The confused seas will be reinforced by swell generated by Hurricane Bud. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through today, then will become moderate through mid week. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will slowly shift westward the next couple of days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge supporting 8 to 9 ft combined wind waves and SW swell from around 15N to 25N W of 130W through tonight. Northerly swell generated from strong northerly winds along the coast of California, combined with swell generated from Aletta is producing seas to 11 ft over the waters N of Aletta, and E of 130W. Long period cross- equatorial SW swell is also propagating across the forecast waters, while new swell is being generated by Hurricane Bud. The combined swells from these systems will continue the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 90W through early this week. By midweek, the SW swell will diminish which will help to decrease the areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft over the region. $$ Latto