000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1952 UTC Sat Jun 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Aletta centered near 16.1N 113.9W at 2100 UTC or 230 nm SW of Socorro Island moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 16N to 19N between 110W and 115W. Aletta continues to weaken rapidly with the combination of strong vertical shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry air entrainment. The latest forecast has Aletta weakening to a tropical storm later tonight and a tropical depression late Sunday night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ22/MIATCMEP2, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. Recently developed Tropical Depression Three-E centered near 12.4N 101.6W at 2100 UTC or 320 nm S of Zihuatanejo Mexico moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection was noted within 90 nm SE semicircle and 90 nm NW quadrant of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere from 07N to 16N between 95W and 107W. TD Three-E will continue to intensify as it moves on a northwestward track. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity tonight, and hurricane intensity Sunday night. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23/MIATCMEP3, and the NE Pacific High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03/MIAHSFEP2 for the latest information on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N92W to 13N98W. It resumes from 10N116W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 09N east of 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 116W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See above for more on Hurricane Aletta and Tropical Depression Three-E. Elsewhere, a broad ridge W of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds west of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. A pulse of NW swell prevails west of northern Baja California, with seas greater than 8 ft. This swell will merge with swell generated by Hurricane Aletta west of the Baja Peninsula generating confused seas greater than 8 ft that will persist into early next week, becoming reinforced next week by the next tropical system. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh east winds will continue across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the period, becoming fresh to strong Sat night. The monsoon trough will meander across the forecast waters near 10N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across northern waters will slowly shift westward the next few days. Fresh trades will continue across the tropics to the south of the ridge. NW to N swell from strong northerly winds along the coast of California continues to support seas to 9 ft within an area bounded by 24N134W to 30N125W to 30N118W to 24N112W to 24N134W. This swell will combine with swell generated from Hurricane Aletta this weekend. Long period cross- equatorial SW swell is also propagating across the forecast waters. New swell is being generated by newly formed Tropical Depression Three-E. The swells from these systems will combine the next couple of days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters south of 25N and west of 95W by Sunday in mixed swell. $$ AL