000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Active convection will slowly shift WNW and across the offshore waters between Acapulco and Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed night in tandem with a broad area of low pressure along the monsoon trough between 98W and 112W. Within this area of broad low pressure, a 1008 mb surface low center has been analyzed at 1008 mb as of 12Z this morning. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous strong thunderstorms from 12N to 15N between 101W- 105W. Scattered to locally numerous strong thunderstorms are noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 108W. Very active weather is expected to persist across this region, and environmental conditions look favorable for further development of the cloud pattern of the low pressure during the next couple of days. This system has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during this time period. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for the latest information on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is across Central America roughly along 86W from 12.5N to 20N, moving westward near 17 kt. Active convection described above to the south of the monsoon trough is associated with this wave. Some of it extends northward across Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters. The wave will move westward and into the Pacific waters east of 90W during the next 24 hours and act to freshen the easterly winds across the Papagayo region late Tue afternoon and night. Active convection will continue to accompany this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Panama to 12N95W to developing low pressure of 1008 mb near 12N105W to 08N120W to 09N127W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with the low pressure described under the Special Features section, scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm south and 120 nm north of the trough between 82W-91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 115W-119W, and within 90 nm south of the trough between 119W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends SE from a large 1032 mb high pressure system centered N of Hawaii near 34N166W to near the Islas Revillagigedo. The typical low pressure trough will take up residence over the Baja Peninsula through Fri. This pressure pattern will generally support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Fri. Seas of 4-5 ft are forecast to gradually build to 5-7 ft Thu and 5-8 ft Thu night and Fri as moderate NW swell moves into the area. Inside the Gulf of California, generally southerly wind flow is expected to continue through Thu. Afternoon and evening sea breezes are forecast to dominate the Gulf for the next few days and will freshen the winds to around 20 kt along the coasts each day. Variable light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala has quieted during the past 24 hours after the major eruption on Sunday. Any ash that moved W or SW across the area Pacific waters has shifted W out of the area. The volcano is likely to resume venting some ash in the coming days. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this afternoon through Wed night, behind a tropical wave moving across Central America. The monsoon trough meanders across the forecast waters near 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds are generally forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Thu night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W tonight. The area will shift W of 140W by this afternoon as high pressure to the N shifts to the west. Northerly swell producing seas to around 8 ft propagating through the NE waters N of 29N between 122W and 127W will gradually subside by early Wed afternoon. Long period SW swell crossing the Equator from the southern Hemisphere will cause seas near the Equator between 92W and 130W to build to 8 ft on Wed night. This area of 8 ft seas will continue to propagate northward and merge with the area of 8 ft seas associated with the area of developing low pressure SW of Mexico by Fri evening. The area of 8 ft seas will expand to include almost all of the basin S of 23N between 100W and 130W during this time frame. $$ Aguirre