000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050331 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W TO 08N78W TO 08.5N93W to developing low pres 1008 mb near 12N104.5W to 10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N east of 87W, and within 180 nm N and 210 nm S of the trough between 88W and 120W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is across Central America along 84W-85W to the south of 18N moving W 15-20 kt. Active convection described above to the east of 87W is associated with this wave, and extends N across Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent Caribbean waters. The wave will move west and into the Pacific waters east of 90W during the next 24 hours and act to freshen the easterly winds across the Papagayo region late Tue afternoon and night. Active convection will accompany this wave as well. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends SE from a large 1032 mb high pressure system centered N of Hawaii near 34N160W to near the Islas Revillagigedo. A typical low pressure trough will take up residence over the Baja Peninsula through Fri. This pressure pattern will generally support moderate to fresh northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula through Fri. Seas are running 4 to 5 ft tonight and are expected to gradually build to 5-7 ft Thu and 5-8 ft Thu night and Fri as moderate NW swell moves into the area. Inside the Gulf of California, generally southerly wind flow is expected to prevail through Tue before winds become more variable. Afternoon and evening seabreezes are forecast to dominate the Gulf for the next few days and will freshen the winds to around 20 kt along the coasts each day. Variable light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. Active convection will slowly shift WNW across the area waters W of Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed night in tandem with a broad area of low pressure along the monsoon trough between 95W and 110W. Surface low pressure appears to be developing within the broad circulation near 12N104.5W tonight. The developing low will move WNW during the next several days. Very active convection is expected to persist across this region, and environment conditions look conducive for improved organization and gradual strengthening of the low. This low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days and a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fuego Volcano in Guatemala has quieted during the past 12 hours after the major eruption on Sunday. Any ash that moved W or SW across the area Pacific waters has shifted W out of the area. The volcano is likely to resume venting some ash in the coming days. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo this afternoon through Wed night, behind a tropical wave moving across the area. The monsoon trough meanders across the forecast waters near 10N. Gentle to moderate E winds are generally forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Thu night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W tonight. The area will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to the N shifts W. Northerly swell raising seas to around 8 ft will begin to propagate into the NE waters N of 29N tonight between 122W and 127W. Seas 8 ft or greater will spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before beginning to diminish. Associated seas are expected to subside below 8 ft west of 121W by Wed night. Long period SW swell crossing the Equator from the Southern Hemisphere will cause seas near the Equator between 92W and 130W to build to 8 ft on Wed night. This area of 8 ft seas will continue spreading N and merge with the area of 8 ft seas associated with the area of developing low pressure SW of Mexico by Fri evening. The area of 8 ft seas will expand to include almost all of the basin S of 23N between 100W and 130W during this time frame. $$ Stripling