000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1506 UTC Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1605 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 09N88W to 12N103W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 07N130W to 08N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded by 14N90W to 08N87W to 06N91W to 05N112W to 08N118W to 18N104W to 14N90W. A tropical wave extends N from the just S of the coast of Panama near 06N80W to over the Caribbean near 17N80W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 05N to 07N between 78W and 81W. Scattered moderate and isolates strong convection is seen elsewhere within an area bounded by 08N78W to 03N78W to 09N86W to 08N78W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends SE from a large high pressure system centered N of Hawaii near 35N157W to near the Islas Revillagigedo. This pressure pattern will support moderate to fresh northwest breezes west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. Winds will once again freshen west of the Baja Peninsula during the second half of the week in response to a low pressure trough developing over the Baja Peninsula. Fresh NE winds will wind down over the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W this morning as nocturnal drainage flow tapers off. Otherwise, winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be variable at light to gentle speeds through Thu night. Active convection will slowly shift W across the area waters tonight through Monday morning associated with a developing area of broad low pressure SW of the Gulf. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the monsoon trough near 10N103W this morning. The developing low will move WNW during the next several days. This low has a medium probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days and a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A major eruption of the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala occurred Sunday, projecting ash well into the upper atmosphere which spreading in all directions. However, the the vast majority of the ash will be steered by the wind flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere toward the NE and E away from the forecast waters during the next day or so. However, a small amount of ash may have been carried in low level ENE flow over the local offshore waters. Emissions from the volcano have tapered off significantly during the past 12 hours. This should allow any ash over the waters adjacent to Guatemala to disperse. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, with moderate nocturnal offshore breezes expected to resume on Tue night. The monsoon trough extends from ESE to WNW between 10N and 12N. Gentle to moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Wed. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W tonight. The area will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to the N shifts W. Northerly swell will propagate into the NE waters early Tue morning. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell will spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before beginning to disperse. Associated seas are expected to subside below 8 ft west of 121W by Wed night. $$ CAM